Marin Real Estate Update | April 2010 | Pacific Union International
To sum up the following report, I point to the chart below — We all know how supply and demand works.
If you want more details, here you go.
The sun is out and spring sports are underway – it is officially real estate season. We have reviewed cyclical and seasonal trends in MarinCounty in an effort to predict the balance of 2010. We are more optimistic today than we have been in twenty four months. It seems consumer demand for Marin and San Francisco real estate is regaining its stride. While some real estate decisions can be postponed, eventually buyers need to buy and sellers need to sell. New listings and new escrows are both up over 100% since the turn of the year.
April 2009 marked the inflection point when buyers began cautiously re-engaging with the Marin County real estate market. A year later, Q1 2010 results for volume ($) and units (#) are up significantly in the core of the market. Like the job market, the first quarter of 2010 may also indicate the stabilization of pricing; a required first step in our market’s recovery. As we look forward in 2010 we are encouraged by the recent increase in MarinCounty (and Bay Area-wide) new inventory (listings). Since March 1st, MarinCounty has seen over 450 new listings. Over 175 of these homes have list prices in excess of $1 million.
We continue to analyze buyer behavior and sense their confidence when properties are well priced, staged, and properly presented. Buyers are dismissive of homes that are “over-priced” in order for sellers to leave room for “negotiations”. For well priced homes, buyers are very motivated to act and negotiate within realistic pricing tolerances. In fact, we are again experiencing multiple offers in well priced and positioned properties. Yet, even “hot” properties often require three to five counter-offers to fine tune terms and conditions before the sale is ratified by both parties. Therefore, you need a tough negotiator on your side.
We are confident that the units sold in 2010 will far outpace 2009, but on a relative basis not to the extent we have experienced in first quarter of 2010. This dramatic increase in first quarter 2010 units sold was a result of very limited activity in first quarter 2009. Our perspective on pricing remains stable, meaning we do not expect significant increases or decreases in pricing at any price point this year.
The Well-Off Are Spending Again – But, Carefully. This article articulates that the wealthy are beginning to spend again on yachts, planes, jewelry and luxury hotels. This all reflects well for residential real estate. The take away for me was the importance of “perceived value” in the eyes of the buyer. “Today nobody wants to be the last monkey in the Tree.” The article be reviewed online at http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/10/business/10luxury.html?pagewanted=all.
Signs Of Broad Growth – A very healthy outlook on new orders in the global manufacturing business. The service industry lags somewhat, but that is expected. If the current trend continues in manufacturing, the services sector will benefit. Another healthy indicator that re-enforces a recovery, although steady and over the next 24 – 36 months will be positive for real estate. Article may be reviewed on line at http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/10/business/economy/10charts.html?scp=1&sq=in%20order%20books,%20signs%20of%20broad%20growth&st=Search.
- Kyle Frazier, Broker Associate, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), Realtor
- Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin | Pacific Union International
- (415) 350-9440
- E-Mail Kyle Frazier