Marin County, CA. Real Estate Update — April 2009 (Homes For Sale & Price Ranges)

March 2009 new escrows up 17% from March 2008 (and 58% from February 2009) — In Marin County our most reliable indicator of changing market conditions is new escrow activity. New escrow activity bottomed out in December 2008 and began a modest ascent through January and February 2009. I believe the sharp increase in new escrows in March 2009 is a combination of demand returning to our market and the cyclical nature of the business. It stands to reason that thought is that April and May closings will rise accordingly.

Another interesting trend is the surge of activity in central and southern Marin. In the first half of 2008, nearly 60% of the units sold were in central and southern Marin.  By January 2009, largely a result of the October 2008 stock market meltdown, this activity gradually fell to 37% of the units sold in Marin. In February and March 2009 the percentage rebounded to nearly 50% of the county’s activity.This upbeat trend in central and southern Marin is consistent with the activity in my business and a solid sign of strengthening buyer confidence. We expect a strengthening Spring season in Marin County real estate.

As a seller, pricing for “perceived value” has proven to be a very successful approach as homes sold in the first 60 days generally close at or above 95% of the original list price. Homes sold after 120 days on the market generally achieve less than 80% of the original list price. One additional important fact- Marin County single family homes over $500,000 experienced only 173 closing in Q1’09. This is less than 20% of the available listings. The best priced homes are selling quickly. The chart below represents the percentage of sale price to original list price by days on the market. 

Marin County Single Family Homes – Original List v. Sale Price – Q1 ‘09

I am frequently asked, “Where is the bottom?” The answer will be different neighborhood-by-neighborhood and client-by-client; many of our current trends are positive. As demand returns to the market, prices generally stabilize and begin to climb.  As for “ringing the bell at the bottom”, many feel the bottom is forming now. The question is – would you rather be partially right and get in now, or late and miss the current market opportunities? Please feel free to call me with your specific questions at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at [email protected]. 

Inventory for single family homes stands at 643 (down a tad from last month) in the Highway 101 corridor (this number excludes Western Marin inventory and condos). There is definitely a sense that with a little positive media and some further anecdotal evidence (and actual closings) that buyers are jumping because they believe the bottom is here or near, the market will surge with pent up demand. Certainly, well outfitted homes in great locations are selling promptly. Marin saw 60 homes go into escrow last week and our office had at least 5 homes get multiple (3 or more) offers recently (including 2 of my listings). 

The following graph breaks down the current number of homes for sale and price ranges in Marin County’s HWY 101 corridor (e.g., Marin’s coastal communites are not included) in April 2009, along with the price ranges for each town and/or city.

 Marin Single Family Homes For Sale

For a detailed executive summary providing statistics and trends relating to the Marin real estate market (or any specific zip code), please call me any time (I am Kyle Frazier, Marin Realtor & CRS, Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate) at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at [email protected] . It is always my pleasure to be of service.