Pacific Union International | Christies International Real Estate | Marin County | Q3 2011 Market Trends

The national and international news we are exposed to daily has been consistently volatile for the past three-to-four years. Q3 ‘11 marked both the worst quarter since ‘09 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and a 160% increase in the VIX (volatility index). In Fall 2008, we experienced similar economically jarring news temporarily (October – February 2008) stalling our local real estate markets.

The good news is real estate is a local business! We do not necessarily follow, react or respond to national trends. While our clients’ confidence, job security and investment strategies are very much influenced by national and international news stories, our local real estate results are fairly stable and certainly do not reflect the volatility of the national, international, political or economic unrest.

It is our feeling that Marin County housing prices will remain fairly stable for the next 15 – 18 months. We expect mortgage rates to remain in the five-percent (5%) range (in some loan products lower). As of August 31, 2011, the Marin County unemployment index was 7.8% v the California average of 11.9%. This means 92.2% of all those looking for work in Marin County are employed. We recognize a market recovery will be led by quality job creation, which will be followed by an increase in our clients’ confidence.

Reflecting back to market conditions of Q3 ‘09 and Q3 ‘10, the Q3 ‘11 homes sold, average and median prices have remained fairly stable at +/- 10% changes (see chart below). In general, Marin County real estate market conditions are well off the pricing and homes sold from ‘06 through the first half of ‘08, but buyers with a five plus year investment perspective are seizing attractive opportunities in the market every day.

We have certainly benefited from more realistic sellers in the marketplace. This may be a result of access to plenty of meaningful comparable sales in the market as well as great examples of over-priced homes. Time on the market is clearly not a seller’s friend – statistics from the MLS confirm that homes on the market for over 90 days sold for 89% off their original listing price. This means -$110,000 under original asking price on a $1 million home. Conversely, homes that sell in less than thirty (30) days on the market enjoy a sale price of nearly 98% of the original listing price. Pricing decisions in this market are paramount to achieving a timely sale and maximizing seller’s proceeds.

Buyers in the market are very well educated, conversant on recent sales and new listing inventory – which by the way is well below last year’s at this same time. We find buyers to be generally patient, focused, seeking value and not willing to make offers on overpriced listings. This makes the pool of qualified buyers keenly focused on the best priced inventory. Most buyers are approaching the primary home market as an investment in their home vs. speculation on an appreciating housing market.

We entertain ourselves internally by saying we feel like it has been Ground Hog Day every day for the past three years. However volatile the national and international news may be, we still see opportunity in our market every day for buyers and sellers. Real estate is a very local business – we have micro-markets in Marin County neighborhoods that are far more robust than others. I welcome the opportunity to visit with you about your specific needs, housing interest or the real estate markets in general.

Kyle Frazier, Certified Luxury Home Marketing Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), Broker Associate, Realtor | Christie’s Great Estates — Christie’s International Real Estate.

Call Kyle Frazier at 415/350-9440 for more luxury home market information in Marin County, California (the San Francisco Bay Area’s “North Bay”). As a member of the Marin County Top Agent Network (top 10% in Marin) and the Marin Platinum Group (Top 100 agents), I have access to a database with several dozen luxury homes not currently on the MLS, but discretely offered for sale off-market through Marin, San Francisco, Sonoma, and Napa counties. Please contact me regarding your specific desires. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Marin Luxury Properties Report Pacific Union International – Christie’s Great Estates | Marin County, CA Luxury Home Sales (September 2011)

Pacific Union Int’l – Christie’s Great Estates | Marin County, CA Luxury Home Sales (September 2011) — Luxury home sales continued at a good clip through August, which is usually a very slow month for luxury home sales in Marin County) — overall, we had 14 trades (there were just 7 in February 2011). While domestic and international economic unrest continued grabbing headlines (with the politically charged debt ceiling crisis causing the greatest amount of media hysteria), it remained clear that buyers will act quickly in the luxury home market when they feel a particular home reflects clear value and/or possess unique sales characteristics. Extraordinary opportunities are literally around every corner for buyers who can stomach uncertainty. Pricing in the marketplace (especially for homes that started off overpriced) is soft and “value” is evident in virtually every corner and every price segment of the luxury market.

[Click HERE for the rest of this market report, courtesy of www.ImagineMarin.com.]

Note: As a member of the Top Agent Network (top 10% in Marin) and the Marin Platinum Group (Top 100 agents), I have access to a database with several dozen luxury homes not currently on the MLS, but discretely offered for sale off-market. Please contact me regarding your specific desires.

By: Kyle Frazier, Certified Luxury Home Marketing Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), Broker Associate, Realtor | Christie’s Great Estates — Christie’s Great Estates. Call Kyle Frazier at 415/350-9440 for more luxury home market information in Marin County, California (the San Francisco Bay Area’s “North Bay”).

Tiburon / Belvedere Home Sales & Real Estate | September 2011 | Pacific Union International

Tiburon and Belvedere experienced a total of 16 home sales in August 2011. Consistent with prior months this year, about half of these were properties were priced below $2 million and eleven of the 14 homes currently in escrow in Tiburon and Belvedere are priced below $2 million. Indeed, with only 2 of the 51 homes priced over $3 million in escrow, the higher end luxury market on the Tiburon Peninsula is sluggish at best and offers some excellent value for buyers. Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of the major price bands:

• 29% of homes priced under $2 million;
• 4% of homes between $2 million and $3 million;
• 9% of homes between $3 million and $5 million;
• 0% of homes over $5 million.

Tiburon and Belvedere homes that sold in August 2011, exhibited the following characteristics:

• Number of Sales: 16
• Average Days on Market: 130
• Price: $2.09 million
• Square Feet: 2,971
• Price per Square Foot: $694

If you have any questions or would like a custom market analysis of your home’s current likely sales price, please call me at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Broker, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS) with Christie’s Great Estates | Pacific Union International Realtors.

And if you are a buyer, I am also a member of the Top Agent Network (Top 10% in Marin County) and the Marin Platinum Group (Top 100 agents in Marin County). These are elite agent networks with access to dozens of homes being marketed informally and not on the MLS. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Mill Valley Real Estate Report (September 2011 Home Sales Update) | Pacific Union International

August 2011 home sales in Mill Valley rose to 37 trades (pretty strong number considering the Summer is normally very slow for Marin County real estate)). These properties sold for an average price of $1.229 million and averaged 2,328 sq. ft. (or about $530 per sq. ft.).  Pricing remains the key ingredient determining buyer interest levels and salability. Buyers continue to insist on readily apparent and undeniable value. If they don’t see it in a property, they are willing to wait it out.

The number of listings actively on the market in the MLS has increased as we enter the slower Summer season to 106. The percentage of homes in escrow:

• Under $800,ooo — 43%
• $800,000 to $1 million — 31%
• $1 million to $1.5 million — 37%
• $1.5 million to $2 million — 11%
• Above $2 million — 19%

Listings in Strawberry, Boyle Park, Middle Ridge, and Homestead Valley generated the most calls this month. Well priced homes continue to generate multiple offers.

If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at  (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at [email protected] I currently have several clients who want to sell, but are waiting in the wings for Spring 2011. Please contact me to determine if any of these opportunities fit your needs. I am also a member of the Top Agent Network and Marin Platinum Group with access to dozens of homes not “officially” on the market but available for sale.

If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, e-mail me. It is always my pleasure to be of service. Christie’s Great Estates | Pacific Union International Mill Valley, CA.

Pacific Union San Rafael, CA Real Estate Update (September 2011 Real Estate Report)

San Rafael, CA’s August 2011 home sales held steady during August (traditionally, a slow month) at 37 trades. The entry level price band (under $600K) remains very strong — 26 of these homes are currently in escrow. Meanwhile, the $600K to $800K price band (a mix of entry level and move-up homes) remains buyer-friendly and accounts for another 20 homes in escrow. Consistent with prior months, roughly 2/3 of the sales in San Rafael are homes priced under $800K. There are currently 121 homes active on the MLS. Averages relating to the 37 San Rafael homes which sold in August 2011 are as follows:

• days on market — 86
• sales price — $830K
• home size was 2,200 square feet
• $362 per sq. ft.

Homes in Gerstle Park, Lucas Valley, and The Dominican generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your San Rafael neighborhood or if you have any questions about our many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 . My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a J.D., Broker, Realtor, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Pacific Union International. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (September 2011 Novato Home Sales Report) | Pacific Union International

Novato, CA home sales continued to surpass expectations in August 2011, which is a traditionally slow month in Marin County. Buyers continue to move very quickly on well-priced and/or unique real estate opportunities. The average sales price of Novato homes has swung wildly so far this year based on the composition of sales each month — it was $626K in June 2011 and $566K in August 2011. Last month’s trades averaged 79 days on market, were about 2,023 sq. ft., and averaged roughly $288 sq. ft. Novato’s  absorption rate (e.g., number of months’ inventory of homes for sale based on last month’s sales totals) is a very low 3.16 months’ worth of available inventory overall (117 single family homes are actively for sale in Novato). The hottest component of the Novato real estate market is the entry level — homes priced under $500K — where 66% of homes are in escrow and inventory is so tight that the absorption rate is just over one month’s worth of inventory. Also, as noted in recent updates, the number of new listings introduced to the market which are either bank owned or short sales is down dramatically. This time last year (and in 2009), roughly half of the homes coming to market were distressed — if this trend continues, prices will stiffen and eventually bump up.

Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of Novato’s major price bands:

■66% of homes priced under $500,000;
■43% of homes between $501,000 and $750,000;
■28% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million;
■7% of homes between $1 million and up.

Of the 44 homes that sold in August 2011:

■14 homes were priced under $500,000;
■27 homes priced from $501,00 to $1 million; and
■3 homes priced from $1 million and up.

Note: I have a pocket listing in Marin Country Club Estates with a gorgeous pool, golf cart garage, sound studio/office. This is an indoor-outdoor lifestyle home with all day sun at the pool. The property is extremely private and in the flats.

Call me for more information and a private showing.

Homes in The Landing at Hamilton Field, Breakers at Pointe Marin, Country Club, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a J.D., Broker, Realtor, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Pacific Union International Real Estate. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

The Landing at Hamilton Field — NEW CONSTRUCTION. Prices start in the mid – $700′s. We have three homes ready for immediate move-in. Please call me at (415) 350-9440 for more information. Or visit our website at www.TheLandingNovato.com

Pacific Union Int’l – Christie’s Great Estates | Marin County, CA Luxury Home Sales (August 2011)

Pacific Union Int’l – Christie’s Great Estates | Marin County, CA Luxury Home Sales (August 2011) — Luxury home sales continued through July (our swoon season) — we had 11 trades (there were 9 in January and just 7 in February 2011). While international events of the past 10 months and economic events this past month have made for a turbulent year in the luxury sector, it appears that buyers are continuing to snap up luxury homes that reflect clear value and/or possess unique sales characteristics. Certainly, there are extraordinary opportunities available right now for buyers. Pricing in the marketplace (especially for homes that started off overpriced) is soft and “value” is evident in virtually every corner and every price segment of the luxury market. In line with normal seasonal adjustments, the inventory of luxury homes remains somewhat low — 138 properties are in the MLS over $2 million in Marin (this is somewhat lower than years past as many home value have dipped below $2 million).

Marin County cities recording luxury home sales between $2 million and $4 million in March 2011 included: Tiburon (2), Belvedere (2); Mill Valley (2); Larkspur (1); San Anselmo (1); and San Rafael (1). These homes averaged 119 days on market. Their average sales price was $2.798 million (roughly $763 per square foot), with an average of 3,903 square feet. Marin County’s ultra-luxury market (homes priced in the $4 million and up range) accounted for two sales last month (one in Mill Valley and the other in Belvedere) and there are currently four more of these homes in escrow.

Note: As a member of the Top Agent Network (top 10% in Marin) and the Marin Platinum Group (Top 100 agents), I have access to a database with several dozen luxury homes not currently on the MLS, but discretely offered for sale off-market. Please contact me regarding your specific desires.

By: Kyle Frazier, Certified Luxury Home Marketing Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), Broker Associate, Realtor | Christie’s Great Estates — Christie’s Great Estates. Call Kyle Frazier at 415/350-9440 for more luxury home market information in Marin County, California (the San Francisco Bay Area’s “North Bay”).

Opportunity Surround Us

A few thoughts from Mark McLaughlin, CEO of Pacific Union International:

Opportunity surrounds us again! Analytic and sophisticated investors will source exceptional buying opportunities in equities and real estate in the near term. Our economic fundamentals are far stronger today than those present during the Fall 2008 and Spring 2009 financial crisis.

The volatility we are now navigating is not from a lack of economic confidence; it is one of a complete lack of political confidence. To quote Moody’s it is “the risk of political polarization and uncertainty that are among the drivers of our negative outlook”…on the USA and its debt.

I have spent the past 72 hours researching and reading to enhance my understanding of the current state of affairs, near term risks and opportunities. What I have learned is summarized below and, in general, very encouraging.

The cause of the Fall 2008 crisis was predominately driven by two melt downs:

• The residential housing bubble finally collapsed deflating values by 25% – 40% depending on the region of the country.

Many of our financial institutions were undercapitalized and near a state collapse. Largely as a result of poorly underwritten residential mortgages.

Today, we have consolidated our financial institutions into larger and mainly healthier banks. The Federal Reserve has made access to capital both plentiful and affordable. The residential housing market remains unpredictable; however, new home building is nearly a zero in our GDP so clearly our industry is not poised for a collapse, the bottom is in!

I participated in a Goldman Sachs conference call yesterday where the Chief Investment Officer shared thoughts illustrating that our underlying real (or adjusted) GDP growth might be 3% v the recently reported 0.8%. Three phenomena seem to have constrained GDP from 3% to 0.8%. They were:

• The disruption in global supply chains as a result of the Japan earthquake (.25%).
• The increasing cost of oil which resulted in reduced consumer spending (1%).
• USA government fiscal policy, or lack thereof (1%).

If we believe the above are somewhat temporary and political rhetoric can be channeled to fiscal responsibility, then we may see GDP increase in the second half of 2011 to over 2%.

With respect to residential real estate specifically in the San Francisco Bay Area, we are a largely supply constrained market. In the six counties we serve, only two counties really experienced over building in the pre-2007 housing boom. As a result, our inventories are manageable and not causing downward pressure on pricing.

In a conference call yesterday with our Management Team the following observations were made of this week’s market activities:

• San Francisco – stability seems to be present. Business as usual although light activity as expected in summer. Multiple new escrows in past few days mainly in $1.25 to $2.25 million range.
• Marin – High-end of market is still performing although summer slowdown is real. PUI is scheduled to close $45 million in August ’11. Six (6) deals currently pending to close in August ’11 over $2 million, one over $4.5 million – all buyers seem stable, committed and feel values are still appropriate.
• Alameda – General market consensus is cautious but very active with appetite for additional inventory. Market needs additional inventory in the $750K – $1.2 million price range. Historically low mortgage rates are motivating buyers. Seems like a great time to be a seller!
• Contra Costa – Status quo seems to be prevailing attitude. More new inventory this week than expected is a positive sign leading up to schools starting back up again. Distress sales (short sales, REOs and pre-foreclosure) still seem to generate multiple offers which confirms value-pricing is paramount!
• Napa – High-end of market is on fire!! Since Saturday, PUI ratified both sides of a deal over $7 million, two deals at est. $2.4 million, two more at $1.2 and $1.9 million. We also represent two very active buyers over $10 million.
• Sonoma – No evidence of stress in the markets yet! PUI secured eight new listings last week and ratified eight new escrows between $400K – $1.495 million. Like Contra Costa County, historically low mortgage rates are motivating buyers. Seems like a great time to be a seller!

A few final observations shared by Goldman Sachs’ Chief Investment Officer today:

The average individual investor buys equities at or near the top when it seems most comfortable. This same investor generally exits the market at the sell-off or collapse when it is most uncomfortable. This is precisely the wrong investment strategy to follow. Now is the time to be a buyer!

Stocks and real estate are relatively “inexpensive” at present.

Investors should know we are in an environment of targeted low rates of return. Targeted returns for the next two – three years for example may be:

o   US Treasury Bonds: 2%

o   Real Estate: 3% – 4%

o   Equities: 6% – 7%

The likelihood of another recession is too pessimistic given the fundamentals described above. Our politicians have read a few recent headlines and hopefully they now feel the demand for fiscal responsibility. S&P and Moody’s have clearly stated the USA needs $4 – $6 trillion of budget reductions in next 10 – 14 years not the $2 trillion recently approved.

PUI will manage through the balance of summer with cautious optimism. As our children return to school we expect to see an increase in listing inventory and increasing units sold through Thanksgiving. If the IPO market opens again after Labor Day, we could see a significant increase in homes sold in the high-end markets.

Interest rates remain at historic lows (mortgages are “on-sale”) and real estate is relatively inexpensive. While many will retreat and wait for the comfort zone (near the next peak), now is the time to seek opportunity and buy!

We welcome your comments and questions during this volatile time. Hopefully our advice will assist in uncovering your opportunity!

Tiburon / Belvedere Home Sales & Real Estate | July 2011 | Pacific Union International

Tiburon and Belvedere experienced a total of 12 home sales in June 2011. Consistent with prior months this year, nearly half of these were properties were priced below $2 million. Thirteen of the 24 homes currently in escrow in Tiburon and Belvedere are priced below $2 million. Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of the major price bands:

• 31% of homes priced under $2 million;
• 21% of homes between $2 million and $3 million;
• 19% of homes between $3 million and $5 million;
• 3% of homes over $5 million.

Tiburon and Belvedere homes that sold in June 2011, exhibited the following characteristics:

• Number of Sales: 12
• Average Days on Market: 92
• Price: $2.263 million
• Square Feet: 3,277
• Price per Square Foot: $686

If you have any questions or would like a custom market analysis of your home’s current likely sales price, please call me at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Broker, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS) with Christie’s Great Estates | Pacific Union International Realtors.

And if you are a buyer, I am also a member of the Top Agent Network (Top 10% in Marin County) and the Marin Platinum Group (Top 100 agents in Marin County). These are elite agent networks with access to dozens of homes being marketed informally and not on the MLS. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Mill Valley Real Estate Report (Pacific Union July 2011 Home Sales Update)

June 2011 home sales in Mill Valley rose to 35 trades (up from 28 in May). These properties sold for an average price of $1.245 million and averaged 2,365 sq. ft. (or about $547 per sq. ft.).  Pricing remains the key ingredient determining buyer interest. Buyers insist on apparent and undeniable value. If they don’t see it in a property, they are willing to wait it out.

The number of listings actively on the market in the MLS has increased as we enter the slower Summer season to 106. The percentage of homes in escrow:

• Under $800,ooo — 35%
• $800,000 to $1 million — 29%
• $1 million to $1.5 million — 22%
• $1.5 million to $2 million — 22%
• Above $2 million — 10%

Listings in Strawberry, Boyle Park and Homestead Valley generated the most calls this month. Well priced homes continue to generate multiple offers.

If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at [email protected] I currently have several clients who want to sell, but are waiting in the wings for Spring 2011. Please contact me to determine if any of these opportunities fit your needs. I am also a member of the Top Agent Network and Marin Platinum Group with access to dozens of homes not “officially” on the market but available for sale.

If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, e-mail me. It is always my pleasure to be of service. Christie’s Great Estates | Pacific Union International Mill Valley, CA.

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