The Landing Novato

Marin County, California, Luxury Homes Report (January 2010–Sales and Inventory Analysis)

January 30, 2010

Home sales in Marin County, California’s luxury price bands continue to recover from the proverbial wasteland of late 2008 and early 2009 when it seemed as though the luxury home market would never recover. Yet, as reported in previous months, real buyers continue to snap up homes in prestige locations such as Belvedere, Ross, Kent Woodlands, etc. Indeed, “value” properties are gobbled up quickly. Despite this apparent thirst for luxury digs, inventory levels remain 40% higher than two years ago. This year will see a pronounced uptick in short sales in these price bands — please contact me to discuss how this impacts your plans.

This trend is not unique to Marin, but prevails nationwide. For a detailed snapshot of current national trends from the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing, click HERE.

[Click here for the rest of this report detailing the Marin County, CA luxury real estate market,

courtesy of www.ImagineMarin.com.] 

Marin County, CA. Real Estate Update — January 2010 (Homes For Sale & Price Ranges)

January 20, 2010

When Will Marin County Real Estate Markets Return To Normal?

We are approached daily by our clients with requests to predict what will happen in our local real estate markets in the near future. To shape our perspective, Morgan Lane researched Marin County single family home (SFH) sales and indexed them (on a units-sold basis) to multiple benchmarks including: interest rates (10 Year T-bill), unemployment (SF Bay Area) and an affordability index (income vs. cost of ownership). We continue to struggle to find direct correlation between Marin County real estate and these available indices.
 
We have found a relationship worth noting between the total number of Marin County SFH (supply), the total reported sales (demand) and the annual rate of appreciation (%). The chart below illustrates the following: Supply, since 1999, increased an average of only .38% per year; Demand (closed sales) averages 2,352 units, or 3.62% of total supply; Appreciation averaged 6.50% over the past eleven years but has decreased -.35% over the past five years.
 
 
The rate of demand is a key variable for Marin County real estate. In four of the six years where demand has exceeded the average (3.62%), we have experienced double-digit appreciation. In 2002 and 2003, the demand exceeded the eleven-year average, but we did not realize double-digit appreciation. Demand for SFH in Marin County has fallen 52% since the peak in 1999. Our SFH sales in 2009 are 1,650 units or 70% of the eleven-year average making 2009 the 2nd slowest year in the past eleven.
 
In our view, recovery to a normal market (demand of 2,352 units or 3.62% of supply) will require substantive shifts in the overall financial landscape including, but not limited to, stability in financial markets, a strong local employment trend, affordable interest rates and strengthening consumer confidence. It is difficult to predict the future and “normal” may return with a somewhat new definition. As for our outlook, we are prepared to do business in current market conditions throughout 2010.
 
Through 2009, Marin County continued to see substantial decreases in demand (units sold) vs. 2008. To our benefit we see only pockets (both price ranges and geography) of average or median price erosion (see chart below). We are encouraged to see Marin County volume up in all segments. By contrast, California markets with significant excess inventory (supply) are experiencing prices and units sold down by well over 40% year-over-year.
 
 
Pricing a home in this market is clearly our most important role and a significant challenge. We rely on rigorous methods of analysis and proven results to demonstrate our success. How all of these dynamics relate to you, your desired neighborhood or specific home requires a focused analysis similar to the one above. If you have questions or concerns, please do not hesitate to call on me.
 
I look forward to continuing our relationship and successfully assisting you in your real estate investment decisions. Please feel free to contact me for a confidential and thoughtful analysis of your situation | Kyle Frazier, CRS, CLHMS (Morgan Lane Marin | Christie’s Great Estates) (415) 350-9440.

Tiburon & Belvedere CA Real Estate Market Report (January 2010 Home Sales Update)

January 20, 2010

Tiburon and Belvedere have posted $5 million and up sales every month for the past six months. While overall sales and activity remain choppy, anecdotally, we are seeing that interest in these tony nieghborhods rise, along with interest in high-end luxury homes. There are currently 71 listings in the 94920 zip code (compared with 72 last month), which covers Tiburon and Belvedere, CA. 

In the lower price bands, activity is strong, with 9 sales in the sub-$3 million price range. In sum, there were 13 sales in December 2009 — more than double the sales total in November 2009. Below is a graph comparing median prices over the past year. While the sales totals remain similar to that of late 2007 (well before the financial crisis of September 2008), inventory is up 43%.


For homes that sold in December 2009, the average price per square foot was $714 — a number drifting down to August’s $674 nadir. Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of the major price bands:

  • 41% of homes priced under $2 million (up 21% from last month);
  • 13% of homes between $2 million and $3 million (up 1% from last month);
  • 14% of homes between $3 million and $5 million (down 4% from last month);
  • 0% of homes over $5 million (same as last month).

Tiburon and Belvedere homes that sold in December 2009 exhibited the following characteristics:

  • Number of Sales: 13
  • Average Days on Market: 198
  • Price: $2,261,538
  • Square Feet: 3,249
  • Price per Square Foot: $714

If you have any other questions or would like a custom market analysis of your home’s current likely sales price, please call me at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Broker, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS) with Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin Realtors. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

p.s. I know of several properties that are not being formally marketed on the MLS, so if you are looking to buy please call me to see if any of these may meet your needs. If you would like a copy of my Tiburon / Belvedere Hotlist, e-mail me at [email protected].

Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (January 2010 Home Sales Update)

January 19, 2010

The number of home sales in the Mill Valley, California real estate market rose again in December 2009 — 27 listings sold, compared with 24 in November. Based on last month’s total, we currently have an overall inventory of homes sufficient to last 1.96 months! This is a HUGE reduction from the absorption rate from May 2009, which stood at well over 8 months. Indeed, the number of homes for sale in Mill Valley is an extraordinarily low 53. Meanwhile, asking prices have held steady over the past quarter and stand now at about $610 per square foot. It remains to be seen whether this rise will translate into higher sales prices.

[Click HERE for the rest of the article, courtesy of www.MillValley101.com.]

San Rafael CA Real Estate Market Report (January 2010 Home Sales Update)

January 19, 2010

San Rafael, California real estate sales slowed in December 2009, with 32 trades, down 33% from November. The entry level price band (under $600K) remains active, with 38% of homes now in escrow. Meanwhile, the $600K to $800K price band (a mix of entry level and move-up homes) has dipped to just 29% of homes in escrow. The inventory for single family homes for sale remains steady at 78 homes. It is expected that this Spring will see a large number of homes hitting the market as sellers who have stayed out of the market for the past 2 years will feel more confident in the real estate market this year.

Of the 32 homes sold in December 2009, the average days on market was 94 days, the average sales price was $871,625, and the average home size was 2,230 square feet — roughly $395 per sq. ft. (the average price per square foot has  remained virtually unchanged for several months). Homes in Lucas Valley, The Dominican, Terra Linda North, and Peacock Gap generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your San Rafael neighborhood or if you have any questions about our many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440.

Kyle Frazier, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Realtors | Pacific Union International. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (January 2010 Home Sales Report)

January 19, 2010

The Novato, California real estate market continues on its journey into recovery. We had 42 sales in December 2010. The average sales price of Novato homes in December 2010 was $634,152. These homes averaged 113 days on market, were about 2,227 sq. ft., and averaged roughly $293 sq. ft. Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., number of months’ inventory of homes for sale based on last month’s sales totals) has dipped to historically low levels — a scant 2.38 months worth of available inventory overall (100 single family homes are currently for sale in Novato).
 
Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of Novato’s major price bands: 
  • 67% of homes priced under $500,000 (74% last month);
  • 66% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000 (65% last month);
  • 42% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000 (53% last month);
  • 33% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million (same as last month);
  • 24% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million (19% last month);
  • 0% of homes between $1.5 million and up.

[Click HERE for the rest of the article, courtesy of www.Novato101.com.]

South Gate at Hamilton Field, Novato (94 Maybeck Street | Home For Sale)

January 8, 2010

In Escrow 1/16/10 — This is a special home with immutable qualities not found in other South Gate at Hamilton Field listings. Most signifricantly, this gorgeous home is sited adjacent to the wetlands restoration project and has no immediate neighbor to the east or north. Even the neighbor to the west is set back — a very rare combination. Located at 94 Maybeck Street, this home features 5 bedrooms and 3 baths (with a bed and bath downstairs), a chef’s kitchen, and a large yard with lots of grass and tasteful landscaping.

 
Live and thrive in Hamilton Field’s coveted South Gate neighborhood in the most rarely available location (a corner lot on the wetlands). Few South Gate homes on the levee have come to market in the past 3 years. This is your chance!
 
Great Room configuration. Kitchen with granite counters, chef’s island, breakfast bar, and work station. The potential for four spacious bedrooms upstairs (note that one room, which is very big, does not have a closet) and 3 Baths. Downstairs also has a bedroom and full bathroom. Dining Room with vaulted ceilings, Living Room, Laundry Room, and more. The luxurious Master Suite provides views across the Bayside open space and watershed.
 
South Gate, Hamilton Field -- Kitchen
 
Facts, Features, and Amenities:
  • Contemporary home on the levee, set back from the street
  • No rear or immediate northern neighbors
  • 5 Bedrooms, 3 Baths, 2-car attached garage
  • Master Bedroom with his-and-hers walk in closet and large master bath
  • Formal Dining Room with vaulted ceiling opens to Living Room
  • Chef’s kitchen with island, ample storage space, and granite counters, 5-burner gas range, built-in microwave, breakfast nook and work station, and pantry
  • Utility/Laundry Room
  • Fabulous views toward The Bay from upstairs
  • Gorgeous landscaping with large grassy areas in the front, side, and back yards and mature trees
  • Vegetable garden patch
  • Fireplace with slate surround and custom mantle
  • Media center built-ins in Family Room
  • Wired for internet, cable, and phone
  • Fire suppression sprinklers throughout home
  • Automated landscape and lawn irrigation system
  • Backs to open space with direct access to the proposed Bay Trail
  • Close to all Hamilton amenities: South Gate Park, Pool, YMCA, Public Library, Art Museum, Café, Hangars, Little League, Soccer Fields, Racquetball Courts, Tennis Courts, Basketball Courts, Hamilton Landing businesses, Hamilton Marketplace, skateboard park, and Gymnasium
  • Nearby shopping and dining include the newly opened Hamilton Marketplace including Safeway, Pete’s Coffee, Sonoma Latina Grill, La Boulange, Pasta Moto, and Toast
  • Enjoy the quick Southern Novato commute to SF with HWY 101 widening project completed (southbond and northbound carpool lanes both opened)

 

  • Property Address: 94 Maybeck Street Road, Novato, CA 94949
  • Listing Price: $842,000
  •  www.94Maybeck.com

If you would like to learn more about this lovely South Gate at Hamilton Field, Novato home on the levee or set up an appointment to see it, please call Kyle Frazier, the listing agent, at (415) 350-9440.

 

Kyle Frazier, CRS
Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate