Marin County, CA. Real Estate Update — July 2009 (Homes For Sale & Price Ranges)

The Marin County, CA real estate market is a mixed bag. Recent escrow activity levels have been refreshing, if not invigorating. New escrows generated in April – June 2009 represent the three best months since June ’07. This progress seems to be continuing. In fact, we could experience the busiest summer in Marin County real estate in recent years.

This increase in activity (not price appreciation) follows the slowest six month stretch we have seen in sixteen years. Closings of Marin County single family homes in the 4th quarter of 2008 (457) was the lowest since 1994. Closings in 1st quarter 2009 (222) and 2nd quarter ’09 (421) both set the sixteen year low as well. We feel this recent rally is a reflection of increasing consumer confidence either as a result of, or in combination with, the stock market rebound which began in March 2009. And just when Wall Street looked as though significant further downward movement was in the cards (after a month of week over week declines from mid-June to early July), last week’s results erased all losses from the past month as quarlterly earnings reports have been coming in higher than expected. 

On a year-over-year basis, pricing of single family homes in Marin County is a completely different comparison. Depending on your neighborhood, the value of your home could be off 15% – 50% from its peak. As I have documented in previous newsletters, Marin County real estate was impacted by two financial events. Beginning in August 2007, the northern part of the county (Novato and areas of San Rafael) suffered from the sub-prime lending crisis. The activity level in Central and Southern Marin was nearly frozen from October 2008 thru mid-March 2009 — a result of the stock market meltdown.

Today, it appears that our housing recovery will be driven by an increase in units sold. Today’s buyers are driven by value and opportunity. Sellers clinging to what they recently paid for a home or what they "need to sell it for" seem to be grasping at “hope” and have become frustrated in a buyers’ market where days on the market produces diminishing returns.

Market Statistics
Q2 ’09 v Q2 ‘08

To transition the above table to positive/green indicators and price appreciation, we will need to see a substantial increase and sustained level of demand. May and June 2009 activity may represent the beginning of this recovery. However, the current rally described here applies only to units sold, not price appreciation. The lone exception may be Novato. It was the first locale in Marin to begin winding its way through the belly of the snake and is currently hitting apparently sustainable levels of inventory and demand. Click HERE for our July 2009 analysis of Novato’s real estate market, courtesy of www.Novato101.com. 

The chart below represents the number of single family homes for sale and the price ranges for each city and town Marin County, California’s Highway 101 corridor. In sum, we have 784 total units for sale, compared with last month’s 902 units.

Marin Single Family Homes For Sale

Buyer opportunities in the Marin market are extraordinary. The recent pricing of homes back to levels seen in the early part of the decade, combined with very attractive mortgage rates and flexible, (mostly) motivated sellers, represent ideal conditions for investing in Marin County real estate. If you compare your investment in Marin County real estate to other prestigious communities throughout the USA or the results in the stock markets, Marin County real estate may be the best performing asset in your portfolio.

On the macro level, new construction of U.S. houses expanded for the second straight month in June after hitting a record low in April, the Commerce Department estimated last Friday. Starts of new single-family homes rose by 14.4% to 470,000 in June. This is the highest level of starts since last November. And building permits, a leading indicator of housing construction, rose 8.7%. This is the highest level of permits since December. It remains to be seen if these leading indicators form into meaningful trends. 

For a detailed executive summary providing statistics and trends relating to the Marin real estate market (or any specific zip code), please call (415) 350-9440 or e-mail at [email protected]. My name is Kyle Frazier and I am a broker with Marin County’s finest real estate firm, Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Tiburon & Belvedere CA Real Estate Market Report (July 2009 Home Sales Update)

Consistent with last month, the Tiburon and Belvedere real estate markets remain in a state of semi-slumber pending further clarity regarding the equities and housing markets. There are currently 110 active listings in the 94920 zip code, which covers Belvedere and Tiburon. Twenty-three of these properties are priced over $5 million with just one such home going into escrow in the past 3 months). Meanwhile, there is some limited activity in the lower price bands, including 2 sales in the $2 million to $3 million range. In June 2009, we had 10 sales compared with 7 sales in May 2009 (same as April 2009). Six of last month’s sales were properties priced under $2 million.

One interesting observation based on the below graph: not until March of this year did the median asking price for homes in Belvedere dip below that of 2008. Belvedere was the last Marin city to experience that shift (a full 6 months after Tiburon). Over the past several months however, that shift has become more exaggerated as prices begin reflecting market realities. Indeed, there are currently 5 homes for sale in Tiburon under $1 million and another home in Belvedere. Rarely do we see Belvedere homes hit the market under $1 million. 

Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (July 2009 Home Sales Update)

The Mill Valley real estate market remains predictably unpredictable — after logging 17 sales in May 2009, we had a robust 29 sales in June 2009. Typically, sales slow down as Summer begins and families focus more on vacations and outside activities. That slowdown will be reflected in July sales numbers. Nonetheless, there is serious value in Mill Valley right here, right now. This is true for every price band. Note to buyers: write offers! A closed mouth does not get fed. If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | [email protected].  

 

San Rafael CA Real Estate Market Report (July 2009 Home Sales Update)

As Summer sets in, San Rafael CA’s real estate market has slowed a bit. It is increasingly fueled by foreclosures and short sales. The low end (under $600K) remains hot (67% of homes in escrow, compared with 64% in June 2009) and the $600K to $800K price band has seen steady activity with 35% of homes in escrow.

Increased affordability, low interest rates (rates are down from the time of last month’s report), an increased presence of FHA loans, and a shifting mindset by both buyers and sellers, are all resulting in a strengthening market. Additionally, the $8K tax credit for first time home buyers is likely helping pull some buyers into the fray, despite the income limitations placed on this credit. It will be interesting to see if the government expands the credit to include ALL buyers and increases the credit amount to $15,000 — that would make a big difference for a lot of people. Overall, the number of homes on the market fell to 159 homes (from 168 last month).

As with asking prices in Novato, San Rafael has seen an uptick in average asking prices over the past few weeks. It remains to be seen if this is a leading indicator regarding sales prices. 

[Click HERE for the rest of the article, courtesy of www.SanRafael101.com.] 

Novato Real Estate Market Update (July 2009 Home Sales Report)

The Novato single family home market seems to be forming a bottom. Prices appear to be leveling out and the percentages of entry level homes in escrow are very high. I know that many foreclosure sales and short sales are getting multiple offers. I have several clients who have faced as many 9 to 20 offers in competition for a single family home. This activity bodes well for sales in the higher price bands.

Moreover, in June 2009, Novato had 38 sales (up from 32 in June 2008). Indeed, this reflects an upward trend over the past few months—May 2009 had 44 sales. Of course, many of these are bargain priced homes such as REO’s or short sales. But, nonetheless, the inventory is rapidly being absorbed as there is extraordinary pent up demand.

Perhaps more significantly, the average sales price of Novato homes jumped up to $666,124 in June 2009. This is an increase from $564,770 in May 2009. While there was one $2 million plus sale (an off market sale), which supported this increase in average sales price, even stripping that outlier sale from the equation, the revised average sales price was over $622,000—a strong bump upwards. 

Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato) remains extremely low. In March, we had 7.9 months worth of inventory. Last month, the absorption rate fell to an unbelievable 3.04 months. Today, while up a bit to 3.45 months, it remains very low! Absorption rates, along with days on market averages, provide a telling insight into the overall state of the market. And today’s shrinking inventory and exploding sales evidence a pent up demand and reflect the increased affordability of Novato real estate. Also, note below that the 90-day rolling average of Novato home prices has jumped up — I consider this an additional leading indicator that market forces are establishing a bottom.

[Click HERE for the rest of the article, courtesy of www.Novato101.com.]