As noted in prior reports this year, Marin County, CA’s luxury segment is slow and currently weighted towards homes priced under $4 million. In fact, not a single home priced over $4 million sold in May 2009 and just 2 are currently in escrow (although that could change in a moment as the domino effect is very real in home sales). Of course, the luxury home slump exists throughout the country as affluent buyers wait for a signal to buy. Yet, the news relating to home starts and permit applications is improved again this month. And while the stock market closed in the black for the year last week, this week has brought a correction. So, it appears we will continue to wait for the buying signal. Note, if you would like a local report relating to any town or zip code in Marin or San Francisco, call me at (415) 350-9440.
Buyers are dubious of price stability for good reason (see chart below reflecting year over year median prices in Tiburon, Mill Valley, and Kentfield). But, increased conforming loan limits and a pronounced level of increased affordability across the board should help sales moving forward into the Summer er as buyers with 25% down will obtain top-shelf financing for purchases of $1.6 million. While not “Luxury” territory here in Marin, many buyers of luxury homes must sell their current homes first (80% of buyers are sellers first).
Curiously, inventory levels in Kentfield and Mill Valley have risen moderately (around 20%) over last year, while Belvedere’s inventory has skyrocketed by over 65%. Prediction: Belvedere prices will continue to recede markedly through Q4 2009. Indeed, we can see that trend has set in dramatically in the above chart.
[Click HERE for the rest of this article, courtesy of www.imaginemarin.com.]
As the housing inventory evolves in Southern Marin’s toniest locales (Belvedere and Tiburon), it is fairly apparent that high end market is on hold pending further clarity regarding the equities and housing markets. There are currently 110 active listings in the 94920 zip code, which covers Belvedere and Tiburon. Twenty-six of these properties are priced over $5 million (although just one such home has gone into escrow in the past 2 months). Meanwhile, there is some limited activity in the lower / value price bands. While there were 7 sales in May 2009 (same as April 2009), 3 of these were homes priced under $2 million and the other 4 trades were under $3 million.
One interesting observation based on the below graph: not until March of this year did the median asking price for homes in Belvedere dip below that of 2008. Belvedere was the last Marin city to experience that shift (a full 6 months after Tiburon).
There are currently 29 active properties listed for sale under $2 million in Tiburon and Belvedere; 9 more have accepted offers and remain in escrow. As apparent in the chart below, beyond the entry level price band, activity was fairly slow this past month. Resultingly, nearly a dozen ultra-luxury homes were removed from the market. Meanwhile the average price per square foot fell to $700 — although this number is skewed by the makeup of the sales last month, it is very low number that has caused brokers and sellers a high level of concern. Below is a chart with up to date figures relating to the number of homes on the market in Tiburon and Belvedere, along with the number of homes currently in escrow.
| Price Range |
Total Active Properties |
In Escrow |
| up to $2 million |
29 |
24% |
$2 million to $3 million
|
28 |
10% |
| $3 million to $5 million |
27 |
13% |
| $5 million to $10 million |
19 |
5% |
| $10 million and up |
7 |
0% |
Tiburon and Belvedere real estate that sold last month exhibited the following characteristics:
-Number of Sales: 7
-Average Days on Market: 102
-Price: $2.23 million
-Square Feet: 3,237
If you have any other questions or would like a custom market analysis of your home’s current likely sales price, please call me at (415) 350-9440. It is always my pleasure to be of service.
p.s. I know of several properties that are not being formally marketed on the MLS, so if you are looking to buy please call me to see if any of these may meet your needs.
Readers of my monthly reports on Mill Valley, CA. are well aware of my love for Mill Valley. And what’s not to like? For starters: (1) A quick and easy commute to San Francisco, (2) often spectacular views of the Bay, the Golden Gate Bridge (a short 5-10 minutes down HWY 101), and Mt. Tam, (3) excellent schools, (4) pleasant weather, (4) a mellow, laid back ambiance, (5) a town square unlike any other in Marin (you have to go to the town of Sonoma for anything like it), (6) diverse social events (think Mill Valley Film Festival & The Dipsea Race), (7) lots of good restaurants, and (8) excellent shopping choices, including non-gentrified, family-owned boutiques and shops of all kinds. Along with all this, there is serious value right here, right now. This is true for every price band in Mill Valley. Note to buyers: write offers! A closed mouth does not get fed. If you would like my
Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 |
[email protected].
The above graph charts asking prices and shows that since November 2007 prices have slid from about $740 per square foot to about $610. While some buyers believe prices may slip a bit more, most understand that while interest rates have risen 70 basis points in the past 3 weeks, they are still very low and that mortgage math punishes those who don’t lock in at or near the lowest rate possible. For example, if prices dip another 5% and interest rates go up just 1%, the monthly payment would increase dramatically for an $800K home with 20% down (call me for exact numbers relating to a given situation).
[Click HERE for the rest of the article, courtesy of www.MillValley101.com.]
Moving into the Summer, San Rafael CA’s real estate market is increasingly fueled by foreclosures and short sales. The low end (under $600K) has been hot (64% of homes in escrow). Meanwhile, the $600K to $800K price band has seen a surge in activity with 38% of these homes in escrow, up from 29% in May 2009. Increased affordability, low interest rates (although not as low as they were), an increased presence of FHA loans, and a shifting mindset are all resulting in a strengthening market. Additionally, the $8K tax credit for first time home buyers is likely helping pull some buyers into the fray, despite the income limitations placed on this credit. It will be interesting to see if the government expands the credit to include ALL buyers and increases the credit amount to $15,000 — that would make a big difference for a lot of people. Overall, the number of homes on the market fell to 168 homes (from 179 last month). Meanwhile, 40 homes sold in May 2009 (up from 26 in April 2009).
[Click HERE for the rest of the article, courtesy of www.SanRafael101.com.]
This month, Novato’s absorption rate fell to an unbelievable 3.04 months. That is low. Absorption rates, along with days on market averages, provide a telling insight into the overall state of the market. As I have noted before, value properties can be found in virtually ALL price ranges in Novato. Pricing in most neighborhoods is back to what it was in 2002-2003. Note that available inventory in the entry level price ranges is way down and the percentages of homes in escrow is rising fast. For example, 72% of homes in Novato priced under $500K are in escrow (up from 63% in May 2009); 48% of homes between $500K and $600K; 52% of homes priced between $600K and $750K; 22% of homes between $750K and $1 million; and 22% of homes priced between $1 million and $1.5 million. These are some strong numbers! If you would like to see just how strong, compare any price range in Novato against homes in other Marin County, CA towns and cities.
[Click HERE for the rest of this article, courtesy of www.Novato101.com.]
