Marin County, California, Luxury Homes Report (May 2009–Sales and Inventory Analysis)

Real estate sales in Marin County’s luxury segment are currently weighted towards homes priced under $4 million. In fact, not a single home priced above $4 million is in escrow (although that could change in a moment as the domino effect is very real in home sales). But, as it stands, the ultra-luxury home sales segment is flat-lining in Marin County, CA. For a detailed snapshot of current national trends from the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing, click here (May 17, 2009 Report).Note, if you would like a local report relating to any town or zip code in Marin or San Francisco, call me at (415) 350-9440.

Yet, the news relating to home starts and permit applications is improving: the West experienced a 42.5% jump in housing starts; the National Association of Homebuilders reported increased confidence (as high as it has been in 9 months); and construction and permits both rose last month (these are considered leading indicators on the macro level relating to housing stability). Nonetheless, the inertia of caution remains firm.

Buyers are dubious of price stability for good reason (see chart below reflecting year over year prices in Tiburon, Mill Valley, and Kentfield). But, increased conforming loan limits and a pronounced level of increased affordability across the board should help sales moving forward into the Summer as buyers with 25% down will obtain top-shelf financing for purchases of $1.6 million. While not “Luxury” territory here in Marin, many buyers of luxury homes must sell their current homes first (80% of buyers are sellers).

Curiously, inventory levels in Kentfield and Mill Valley have risen moderately over last year, while Belvedere’s inventory has skyrocketed by over 60%. Prediction: Belvedere prices will continue to recede markedly through Q4 2009. Indeed, we can see that trend has set in dramatically in the above chart.

[click here for the rest of the article, courtesy of ImagineMarin.com.]

Marin County, CA. Real Estate Update — May 2009 (Homes For Sale & Price Ranges)

The leading indicator of future sales is the number of homes in escrow at a given time. We have experienced over 60 new escrows in five of the past seven weeks and over 70 for the past three weeks. May 2009 new escrows will likely surpass the levels of April and May 2008. As you can see from the below chart (which goes back 6 months), the number of escrow is up 105% and sales are up 30%. 

The upsurge in sales and escrows is seasonal, but also due to low 5% interest rates on conforming loans right now. We are also seeing a spike in home sales at the low end due to the increased FHA loan limit (now at $729,750). Given the activity we are seeing, it seems likely that the traditional Summer slowdown in home sales will be modest as buyers continue pursuing those "value" properties through the Summer. This year is shaping up to be one defined by "value."

 

Tiburon & Belvedere Real Estate Market Report (May 2009 Home Sales Update)

As inventory collects in Southern Marin’s toniest locales (Belvedere and Tiburon), we are starting to see and hear about more offers being submitted. Certainly, sellers frustrated by the lack of activity have in some cases taken what they could get. Most recognize that our new economy, post-Equity Market Meltdown, has shifted the pricing and value expectations of buyers. While I perceive a high level of pent up buyer demand, buyers seem to be willing to wait things out. Much of this behavior is based on expectations of further price declines weighed against likely increased interest rates in the near to mid-term future. Most buyers I talk to recognize that the time to act, if not here yet, is close. Indeed, when buyers see value, they act. In fact, Morgan Lane Marin has 16 closings coming up in the next 10 days (TIburon and Belvedere).

Typical for this time of year, we have lots of new listings. There are currently 120 active listings in the 94920 zip code which covers Belvedere and Tiburon, including 29 homes priced over $5 million (although no homes in this price range are in escrow). Meanwhile, there is some limited activity in the lower / value price bands. While there were 7 sales in April 2009, 4 of these were homes priced under $2 million and another 2 sales were under $3 million. One interesting observation based on the below graph: not until March of this year did the median asking price for homes in Belvedere dip below that of 2008. Belvedere was the last Marin city to experience that shift (a full 6 months after Tiburon).
 

 

As discussed last month, many of the homes taken off the market during November and December 2008 been re-listed with adjusted prices (35 homes were withdrawn or expired in the final 2 months of 2008). Indeed, in light of the startling numbers relating to Days on Market and final sales price, sellers are well advised to price their homes aggressively (if you would like a chart depicting list price to sales price ratios based on the number of days on the market so far this year, please contact me by calling (415) 350-9440). See below for a comparison of sales statistics against May 2006.
 

There are currently 32 active properties listed for sale under $2 million in Tiburon and Belvedere — six more are in escrow. Below is a chart with up to date figures relating to the number of homes on the market in Tiburon and Belvedere, along with the number of homes currently in escrow.
 

Price Range	Total Active Properties	In Escrow
up to $2 million	32	16%
$2 million to $3 million	32	14%
$3 million to $5 million	27	7%
$5 million to $10 million	31	0%
$10 million and up	8	0%

Tiburon and Belvedere real estate that sold last month exhibited the following characteristics (compared with 2006, in parentheticals): 

-Number of Sales: 7 (2006=12)

-Average Days on Market: 123 (2006=53)

-Price: $2.21 million (2006=$3.1 million)

-Square Feet: 2,855 (2006=3388) 
-Price per Square Foot: $758 (2006=$910)

 

If you have any other questions or would like a custom market analysis of your home’s current likely sales price, please call me at (415) 350-9440. It is always my pleasure to be of service. 

p.s. I know of several properties that are not being formally marketed on the MLS, so if you are looking to buy please call me to see if any of these may meet your needs.

Mill Valley CA. Real Estate Market Report (May 2009 Home Sales Update)

The median price per square foot has dipped to about $575 per sq. ft. (which is down from well over $800 in mid-2007). While some buyers believe prices may slip a bit more, as noted above, most appreciate the fact that interest rates are very appealing. Indeed, mortgage math punishes those who don’t lock in at or near the lowest rate possible. For example, if prices dip another 5% and interest rates go up just 1%, the monthly payment would increase rather significantly for an $800K home with 20% down (call me for exact numbers relating to a given situation). 

Down from April 2009, the percentage of homes in escrow under $800,000 slipped to 21%. I have a fixer listed in Homestead Valley that is a super value play, priced at $768,800 (3 Beds/3 Baths, 14,000 sq. ft. lot backing Molino Park). If you would like my Mill Valley Hot List, call or e-mail me: (415) 350-9440 | [email protected].

Based on last month’s sales total of 14 (we had 11 sales in March), we currently have an overall inventory of homes (AR) sufficient to last a bit more than 11 months in Mill Valley, CA.

Overall, the number of homes for sale rose to 133 (way up from 90 in February). The number of "bread and butter" homes (those priced between $1 million to $2 million) currently in escrow is hovering at 1. Meanwhile, the luxury market in Mill Valley (homes from $2 million and up) seems to be improving as we have 5 such homes currently in escrow to go along with a couple of sales last month. 

Of the 14 sales to close escrow in April 2009, they averaged 64 days on the market and sold for an average price of about $1.41 million with about 2,394 sq. ft. (or about $575 per sq. ft.). Homes in Homestead Valley, Sycamore Park, Boyle Park, and Strawberry generated the most calls this month. If you would like more information about neighborhoods, sales, schools, or local Mill Valley services references, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440 or e-mail me at [email protected] It is always my pleasure to be of service.

[Fr the rest of the article, courtesy of www.MillValley101.com, clich HERE.]

San Rafael CA Real Estate Market Report (May 2009 Home Sales Update)

As noted last month, San Rafael CA’s real estate market is increasingly fueled by foreclosures and short sales. The low end (under $600K) is just on fire with “fire sale” prices. We are currently experiencing an amazing 69% pending ratio for homes priced at or below $600K (up from 31% in February). San Rafael’s bread and butter homes, priced between $600K and $800K continue selling at a moderate pace with 29% of homes in escrow. Increasing affordability, low interest rates on conforming loans, an increased presence of FHA loans, and a shifting mindset are all resulting in a strengthening market. Additionally, the $8K tax credit for first time home buyers is likely helping pull some buyers into the fray, despite the income limitations placed on this credit.

Overall, the number of homes on the market rose slightly with 179 homes (up from 174 last month and about 135 last year at this time). What is striking is the comparison between this month in 2006 and today. See below for more on this.

Twenty-six homes sold in April 2009 (up from 19 in March 2009). The average days on market was 118 days, the average sales price was $680,000, square footage was 1,791–roughly $383 per sq. ft.

[For the rest of the article, courtesy of www.SanRafael101.com, click HERE.]

Novato CA Real Estate Market Update (May 2009 Home Sales Report)

While the pipeline of new properties and overall inventory levels increases dramatically throughout most of Marin County, CA (this is the prime selling season, after all), Novato’s inventory level has remained very steady over the past 3 months. Just 151 single family homes are currently for sale. There were 152 homes for sale in April 2009 and 142 in March 2009.

Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato) again dipped dramatically. In March, Novato had 7.9 months of inventory, in April there was 6 months inventory, and today there just 4.97 months of inventory. Absorption rates and the days on market averages provide a telling insight into the overall state of the market. Today’s shrinking inventory evidences pent up demand and reflects increased affordability for Novato real estate. It is also noteworthy that the absorption rate calculation does not increased “contingent” properties as sold properties. There are another 83 homes in escrow in Novato. More on this striking statistic below.

Of course, there is ample value out there in virtually all price ranges. Prices in most Novato neighborhoods are back down to what they were in 2003 (and 2002, in some neighborhoods). Novato currently has thirteen active listings priced under $400,000 (Novato is Marin’s “Valhalla of Value”). In addition, there are 26 homes priced under $500,000. Note that available inventory in these price ranges is way down and the percentages of homes in escrow is rising. For example, 63% of homes in Novato priced under $500K are in escrow; 51% of homes between $500K and $600K; 33% of homes priced between $600K and $750K; 30% of homes between $750K and $1 million; and 25% of homes priced between $1 million and $1.5 million. These are some strong numbers!

My prediction relating to phantom buyers (I’ve been talking about this for a year now) is coming true. I hold open houses almost every weekend and I talk to a lot of buyers.

[For the rest of this article courtesy of www.Novato101.com, click HERE.]

Mill Valley CA (Luxury Homes & Real Estate — Selling Update 2009)

We are consistently asked by our clients (sellers), “when will our markets return to normal?” We formed our definition of a normal Marin County market in our Q3 2008 Luxury Newsletter (call us for a copy) only to be followed by the October ’08 stock market meltdown. A normal Mill Valley market over the past ten years has been an annual average of 377 single family homes sold (31 per month). For the past six months the total has been 78 (16 per month). The number of units sold is off roughly 50%.

Without closings we have limited comparables to make investment decisions. We are all looking for recent closings to benchmark property values. In the stock market we know CitiGroup Inc. will not soon return to its September 2008 value of $25 per share. In turn, we do not expect Mill Valley real estate to return to early – mid 2008 values. The question is what will the going forward adjustment be?

To discuss the above or for further detailed advise rendered, call Kyle Frazier, CRS (Marin Luxury Homes Specialist) at (415) 350-9440.