The Landing Novato

Marin County, California, Luxury Homes Report (October 2008–Sales and Inventory Analysis)

October 19, 2008

Nationwide, a chill has fallen on the luxury market as the financial debacle unfolds. Historically, many of the luxury homes and ultra-luxury homes sold in Marin County went to buyers who earned their livings in the financial sector. It appears that those buyers have stepped back from the market for the time being. Meanwhile, the number of such homes has increased, placing pressure on pricing. Indeed, even portfolio buyers have taken a wait and see approach.


Marin County, California’s, luxury home market (e.g., homes for sale between $2 million and $4 million) saw an increase in inventory over the past month to 129, compared to 109 homes in September 2008. This significant rise in inventory coincided with a respectable month of sales with 15 homes sold, compared with 16 in September. Mill Valley again experienced the most luxury home sales (with 6). Belvedere and Tiburon each had 2 sales, while Corte Madera, Sausalito, Kentfield, San Anselmo, and San Rafael had 1 sale each. The average days on market for the homes that sold was 98 days and the average sales price was just over $2.6 million (roughly $957/per sq. ft.), with an average of 3,037 square feet. Belvedere and Tiburon seem to be faring well as former has 5 homes in escrow and the latter has 4 homes in escrow.

 

The inventory level in Marin County’s ultra-luxury market (homes priced in the $4 million and up range) receded a bit. There are 46 active listings, compared with 54 last month. Tiburon, as always, leads the pack in this price band with 16 homes for sale and Belvedere follows with 10 active listings. Other cities / towns with homes in this price band include Kentfield, Sausalito, Mill Valley, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, and Novato. There were 3 sales last month (August 2008 had 4 sales). Reflecting the uncertainty of the times, there are currently no ultra-luxury homes in Marin County in escrow. The homes that sold last month averaged 137 days on the market, sold for an average of about $8 million ($1,506/sq. ft.), and were 5,379 square feet.  

 

 

Marin Cities & Towns

$2 Million — $4 Million

$4 Million & Up

Active

Pending

Active

Pending

Sausalito

9

1

1

0

Belvedere

9

5

10

0

Tiburon

35

4

16

0

Mill Valley

22

2

4

0

Larkspur

5

1

0

0

Corte Madera

0

0

0

0

Kentfield

9

1

3

0

Greenbrae

2

0

0

0

Ross

5

1

7

0

San Anselmo

15

0

1

0

San Rafael

12

3

3

0

Novato

6

1

1

0

 

The above graph identifies the numbers of active listings and homes in contract in the Marin County luxury and ultra-luxury home market segments. Note that all homes in contract are included in the category “Pending” even though some are technically “Contingent” properties (e.g., the buyers have not removed all contingencies). This information is limited to Marin County’s Highway 101 corridor towns and cities that consistently maintain a monthly inventory of luxury and ultra-luxury homes (Western Marin coastal homes are not included). Call Kyle Frazier, Marin Realtor & CRS, Broker Associate, Frank Howard Allen Realtors of Marin, at 415/350-9440 for more luxury home market information. You can also e-mail Kyle at [email protected].

Marin County Real Estate Update–October 2008 (Homes For Sale & Price Ranges)

October 16, 2008

Formidable power and influence are now focussed on the worldwide economic situation. While the impact of governmental actions will have on the overall housing market is uncertain, most analysts advise those actions will help stabilize the financial markets, and in turn, real estate. Certainly, in Marin County, homes are selling. 

The fatalism of national media outlets is not reflected my conversations with the dozens of buyers who have poured through open houses in the past month or called or e-mailed me with questions about Marin real estate. Nor is that fatalism reflected in sales numbers. To the contrary, a bona fide enthusiasm exists in the voices of people of who have been waiting to buy while prices moderated or dropped (depending on the area they are looking in). They are excited because they have suppressed their prior urges to buy and think now is the time.  

 

My listing inventory has dwindled to just one home as all have sold in the past couple of months or are now in escrow (one listing had 3 offers). Marin-wide, the number of homes for sale in the HWY 101 corridor stands at 750 (down from 756 in September 2008). As noted above, reports of multiple offers continue–the most likely targets are aggressively priced Southern Marin homes in good locations and bank owned properties in Novato. And even though the number of homes sold has decreased this year, sellers are holding fast to their prices (particularly in Southern Marin). While interest rates are generally creeping upwards, they remain at historically low levels making it a great buying atmosphere (especially in Novato and San Rafael)–if you are interested in up-to-the-minute rates or a list of homes for sale, contact me. 

The graph below breaks down the current number of homes (not including condos) for sale and in escrow in Marin County’s HWY 101 corridor (e.g., Marin’s coastal communities are not included) in October 2008, along with the price ranges for each town/city.

 

 

Marin Single Family Homes For Sale

Town/City
Homes for Sale
(Active Listings) 
Price Range
Sausalito
29
$528,000-$18 million
Belvedere
27
$995,000-$27 million
Tiburon
73
$699,000-$43.995 million 
Mill Valley
140 
$739,000-$9.95 million
Larkspur
29
$619,000-$2.495 million
Corte Madera 
30
$595,000-$1.995 million
Greenbrae
15
$999,000-$2.195 million
Kentfield
25
$600,000-$7.75 million
Ross
16
$1.349 million-$17.5 million
San Anselmo 
78
$544,000-$4.495 million
San Rafael
207 
$379,000-$6.5 million
Novato
253 
$265,000-$6.95 million

 

 

Some observations: Highly desirable Belvedere has seen a nearly doubling of inventory, with 27 homes for sale (there is even a house on market for under $1 million–don’t blink though, for it will soon be gone). If you are looking to spend $10 million or more for an amazing estate with views, start looking in Tiburon, which boasts numerous options ranging from $10 million to $44 million. 

At the other end of the spectrum, Novato has lots of homes under $600,000. Investors are active (again, amazing rates right now) and all signs point to a busy Autumn for Marin Realtors. Indeed, besides having good air (the best in the country, in fact), excellent schools (click HERE for Forbes’ recent article touting Marin Schools), a relatively short commute (even the Novato commute to San Francisco will soon be improved further when the HWY 101 widening project is completed in December), lots of dedicated open space, beaches, hiking trails, proximity to Lake Tahoe, and everything else we sometimes take for granted living here, we can also be pleased that we don’t see the wild down-swings in pricing like other parts of the country (click HERE for my recent article on Fundy Markets).

If you would like any additional information, please give me (Kyle Frazier, Marin Realtor & CRS), a call at (415) 350-9440. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Mill Valley Homes & Real Estate (October 2008)

October 14, 2008

Dear Mill Valley Homeowners– breathe easy. While the economic news is not good, your insightful decision to purchase Mill Valley real estate has likely left you in a good position. While prices tumble in other areas, even in the San Francisco Bay Area, you should, and will be, OK as we are not susceptible to the Fundy Market Phenomenon

Mill Valley homes selling in September 2008 averaged 100 days on the market and sold for an average price of about $1.611 million (roughly $806/sq. ft.). As mentioned last month, the low end is hanging tough–there are ONLY 2 homes currently on the market under $750,000. 

[...click here for the remainder of report and table showing recent activity by price, provided by MillValley101.com]

 

San Rafael Real Estate Market Report (October 2008 Home Sales Update)

October 13, 2008

Lots of uncertainty in the air–but, San Rafael’s real estate market continues performing well as we approach the spooky time of year. Consistent with the past quarter, about 30% of homes in the under $800,000 price range in escrow (that is down 6% from last month, but demonstrates market resilience). There are 20 homes for sale under $600,000 and 36 homes under $700,000. It seems many folks unimpressed with San Rafael’s inventory are heading up HWY 101 a couple of miles and looking into Novato and its “more-bang-for-the-buck” home supply. Buyers know value when they see it (and they expect to see some sizzle from motivated sellers). 

Of the 23 homes that sold in September 2008 (30 sold in August), the average days on market was 99 days. These homes averaged about 2,045 square feet and sold for an average price of about $967,000–that is roughly $455/square foot. San Rafael’s strongest micro-climate markets during the past month included the Dominican, Santa Venitia, Terra Linda, and Lucas Valley. Aficionados of renovated Eichler homes continue to snap up these mid-century modern, architecturally distinctive homes quickly and decisively (unfortunately, there is no Eichler home tour this month).

 

 

Price Range

Total Homes

Pending Listings

Up to $800K

88 (up 3)

30% 

$800K – $1 mil.

50 (up 1)

14%

$1 mil. – 1.5 mil.

33 (down 3)

9%

$1.5 mil. – $2 mil.

16 (down 2)

6%

$2 mil. & Up

20 (down 1)

20%

 

Contact Kyle Frazier, Marin Realtor & CRS, Frank Howard Allen Realtors, with any questions: (415) 350-9440. 


Novato Real Estate Market Update (October 2008 Home Sales Report)

October 12, 2008

We had drizzle of rain last week and today is blustery and cold. Autumn is definitely sinking in. Yet, despite the apparent problems faced by many around the country, the Novato real estate market is teetering on "hot." Buyers are focused and seemingly undeterred.
 
Sellers with a need to sell are embracing aggressive pricing measures as foreclosures continue sapping equity from neighborhoods throughout town. As I have said before and I will say again, Novato is the Valhalla of value in Marin. And those whose financial situations don’t support a run at the higher priced homes of Southern and Central Marin are flocking to Novato. Although interest rates are bouncing up and down on a daily basis (literally), those who can qualify for a mortgage are moving in (literally). We are definitely seeing investors moving out of the stock market and into the bullish realm of Novato real estate.
 
There are 34 homes under $500,000 (down by 2 from September 2008) and 43% of these are in escrow. There are a total of 86 homes under $600,000 currently on the market. At the other end of the spectrum, Novato’s resurgent semi-luxury market ($1 million to $1.5 million price range) posted another 5 sales (there have been 24 such sales over the past 4 months). Overall, an astonishing 53% of condos on the market in Novato are in escrow. But, the most surprising market segment is the $600,000 to $750,000 price band with 27% of homes in escrow. This price band had been sluggish through much of the year.

 

Forty-six Novato homes sold in September 2008–up by 5 from August 2008. These homes averaged about 139 days on market, sold for an average sales price of $715,000 (roughly $338 per sq./ft.). Homes in Pointe Marin, Rush Creek, Bel Marin Keys, and San Marin continue to get robust numbers of showings and/or interest. 

 

Price Range

Total Homes

Pending Listings

Up to $600K

86

35%

$600K - $750K

 48

27%

$750K – $1 mil.

56

14%

$1 mil. – $1.5 mil.

44

11%

$1.5 mil. & Up

23

5%

 

 

For a brief explanation of the importance of the statistic addressing the percentage of "Pending" listings, click HERE. If you would like me to run the exact numbers on your neighborhood, just give me (Kyle Frazier, Marin Realtor & CRS) a call at (415) 350-9440. It is always my pleasure to be of service.