Interest Rates Heading Down (Savvy Buyers Snapping Up Homes)

Savvy buyers are locking loan rates and jumping back into the market. As reported by Inman News, yields on 10-year Treasury notes dipped below 4% for the first time in two-and-a-half years, as investors pulled money out of equities and elected to put that money into the safe and predictable realm of bonds. Yields on the 10-year Treasury note were at 3.83% Monday, down from the high of 5.26% on June 12th.

The 10-year Treasury note is monitored very closely by the real estate industry because it generally tracks the interest rates on 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. While the current spread between 10-year Treasury notes and 30-year mortgage rates is about 2% (up from the historical average of 1.5%), mortgage rates are certainly headed downwards and are nearing 6%.

Interest rates last week on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.2% at 0.5 point (compare this to the 6.73% we saw in July). Last week’s average rate was the lowest since May, when lenders charged an average of 6.15 percent. If you have any questions about how rates impact your bottom line, call Kyle at (415) 350?9440.

Marin County, California, Luxury Homes Report (November 2007–Sales and Inventory Analysis)

As expected, the number of Marin County luxury homes for sale in November 2007 is down. At this time of year, many sellers (especially those still living in their homes) take their homes off the market to reassess their situations in light of the upcoming holiday and rainy seasons. Many of these homes will come back on the market in the new year with new agents, lower prices, and improvements of varying degrees.

In the $2 million to $4 million range, the number of active listings is significantly lower. Inventory shrunk by 21 homes–for a total of 108 homes active on the market. Sixteen homes sold in this price range last month (up by 4 from September 2007). Mill Valley, with its temperate weather, good schools, and easy commute to San Francisco via the Golden Gate Bridge, accounted for the most sales, with 5. Tiburon, Sausalito, Kentfield, and San Rafael each had 2 sales. Overall, the luxury segment in Marin County surged: the average days on market for homes that sold was 54 days (down by 50 days from the previous month), the average sales price about $2.84 million (roughly $951/per sq. ft.), and these homes averaged about 3,000 square feet. Price, curb-appeal/landscaping, and tasteful staging are of utmost importance.

The inventory level in Marin County’s ultra-luxury market (homes priced in the $4 million and up range) remained relatively unchanged with 35 active homes on the market. Tiburon, as usual, boasts the largest number of such homes with 14. It is followed by Belvedere with 7, and Ross and Kentfield with 4 each. Four of these homes sold last month (there were 6 sales in September). Yet, as a sign of strength, another 8 of these ultra-luxury homes are currently in escrow (3 in Tiburon, 2 in Belvedere, 1 in Kentfield, 1 in San Rafael, and 1 in Sausalito). Homes in this category averaged about 130 days on the market, sold for about $5.83 million, and had well over 5,000 sq. ft. of living space. Currently, Marin’s most expensive home is a unique gated Tiburon estate sitting on eight acres with stunning views and resplendent gardens–asking price: $38.5 million.

Marin Cities & Towns	$2 Million ? $4 Million		$4 Million & Up
	Active	Pending	Active	Pending
Sausalito	5	0	1	1
Belvedere	11	2	17	2
Tiburon	25	5	14	3
Mill Valley	19	4	2	0
Larkspur	7	1	0	0
Corte Madera	1	1	0	0
Kentfield	10	1	4	1
Greenbrae	2	0	0	0
Ross	3	1	4	0
San Anselmo	8	1	1	0
San Rafael	3	6	2	1
Novato	4	0	0	0

Above is a graph identifying the numbers of active listings and homes in contract in the Marin County luxury and ultra-luxury home market segments. Note that all homes in contract are included in the category ?Pending? even though some are technically ?Contingent? properties. Also, the information is limited to Marin County’s Highway 101 corridor towns and cities that consistently maintain a monthly inventory of luxury and ultra-luxury homes (e.g., towns without a consistent luxury market and beach homes are not included here). Call Kyle Frazier, CRS, Broker Associate, Frank Howard Allen Realtors of Marin, at 415/350-9440 with any questions about a particular neighborhood or your situation. You can also e-mail Kyle at [email protected].

Mill Valley Real Estate Update (November 2007 Home Sales Report)

The inventory of single family homes in Mill Valley dipped slightly to 73 units from last month’s 77. Just 20 homes are currently on the market under $1 million! As always, the commute to San Francisco from Mill Valley via the Golden Gate Bridge (a short 5-10 minutes), along with the excellent Mill Valley schools, pleasant weather and laid back ambiance provides ample motivation for San Francisco professionals to relocate to Marin County. Accordingly, prices and sales are ever-strong. Indeed, Mill Valley is THE place people from San Francisco generally start with when they decide to buy a home in Marin County.

Mill Valley homes priced between $1 million and $1.5 million (Mill Valley’s bread and butter homes) continue selling so long as they are nicely maintained, updated, and/or located in the most desirable neighborhoods–12 of these homes sold in October 2007 (up by 4 from September’s sales numbers). As with much of the rest of Marin, homes priced aggressively are getting multiple offers—note: the winning bid (which is not always the highest bid) is likely to be a couple of percent above asking price, depending on the home ad price. Mill Valley luxury home sales picked-up last month with 5 homes selling in the $2 million – $4 million price range, along with one ultra-luxury home (in the $4 million and up range). 

Mill Valley homes that sold during the past month (there were 29 home sales, compared with just 19 in October 2007) averaged a mere 42 days on the market and sold for an average price of about $1.67 million ($792 per square foot). The hottest market segment was the $1 million to $1.5 million price range with 12 sales, up 33% from October 2007 (the inventory of homes in this price range is just over 2 months). In addition, as nearly 45% of homes priced under are in escrow–click HERE for an explanation of why this is significant.

Homes in Tam Valley, Strawberry, Sycamore Park, Blithedale and Cascade Canyons continue to be in low supply and high demand. If you would like me to run the exact numbers on your neighborhood, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440.

Marin County Real Estate, November 2007 Update (Homes For Sale & Price Ranges)

As the Fall selling season unwinds, the number of homes for sale (inventory) in Marin County, California has dipped markedly over the past month. There are 680 active listings (down by 108 from last month). In a trend that occurs every year, November marks the beginning of the slow season as home sellers reassess their situation over the holidays–many of the homes that come off the market in November are right back on again in February, March, or April, usually with lower prices and more flexible terms. It will be very interesting to see how things shake out this year. As I have noted in past market reports, there seems to be pent up demand from buyers who are waiting for prices to bottom-out. And many brokers will agree that we are seeing strong sales momentum carrying into November 2007. I think Marin County will see solid sales numbers throughout the Winter.

Indeed, savvy buyers will continue picking off the hot properties and those with “value.” As noted last month, buyers have warmed to the market and many are coming in with large down payments and short contingencies to bolster their negotiating leverage with sellers anxious to make a deal. Novato continues to be a buyers’ dream with prices down and sellers more than willing to do what it takes to sell.  

The graph below breaks down the current number of homes for sale in Marin County, California, as of November 1, 2007, along with the price ranges for each town/city. Also included is a note indicating whether inventory is up or down over the past month:

Marin Single Family Homes For Sale

Some observations: living in highly desirable Belvedere is an expensive proposition–you’ll need $2.5 million to buy at the entry level. The highest priced home in Marin, however, is an ultra-luxury Tiburon estate on about 8.5 acres, with 12 Bedrooms, 10 full baths and 3 half baths (it also boasts some very nice views)–asking price $38.5 million. In fact, Tiburon currently has several homes in the $10 million and up range. A few miles up Highway 101, the average asking price for homes in Kentfield is just about $3.2 million (about $955 sq./ft.), with an average days on market of 116 days. Note that Kentfield currently has just 1 home priced under $1 million (a 1 Bed/1 Bath home). Meanwhile, Greenbrae’s desirable location, schools (it shares Bacich Elementary and Kent Middle School with Kentfield), and Bay views, continues to push prices skyward–the cheapest home in Greenbrae is now over $1 million (which has been the case for several months running). And Mill Valley, despite 66 homes on the market, has just 11 homes priced under $1 million. The Southern Marin and Central Marin markets continue their strong performances in terms of price and sales.

At the other end of the spectrum, Novato has 30 homes priced under $600,000 (including 6 homes under $500,000) and another 29 priced under $700,000–that’s 59 homes under $700,000 in Novato! Novato’s 210 active listings is by far the most in Marin County (down 29 from last month). Even San Rafael in Central Marin has 34 homes priced under $750,000.

If you desire a list of Marin County’s best deals or more specific analysis of your neighborhood, please give me a call at (415) 350–9440.

San Rafael Real Estate Market (November 2007 Home Sales Report)

Heading into the holiday months, the San Rafael housing market continues to show obvious signs of strength. Inventory is up by 24–there are 179 homes currently on the market. San Rafael’s bread and butter homes (those priced between $750,000 and $900,000) continue to sell quickly if priced correctly. As always, homes that are nicely maintained, updated, and/or located in the most desirable neighborhoods continue to sell, although we are seeing buyers exercise great discretion when placing offers and negotiating terms. Indeed, whereas buyers used to settle for homes that had 5 or 6 of their top 10 wants or needs, buyers are now waiting for homes that fulfill 8 or 9 of their top 10 wants or needs.

Of the 32 homes that sold during the past month (San Rafael had 25 home sales in October 2007), they averaged about 61 days on market, for an average price of about $1,018,000 (about $487/square foot). Thirteen of the homes that sold in November 2007 were priced under $800,000 and another 7 homes were under $1 million. 

It is noteworthy that San Rafael’s luxury and sub-luxury markets are HOT, with 40%-45% of homes in escrow.  In fact, a large Upper Lucas Valley equestrian estate priced over $7 million recently went into escrow. And the market is also cooking at the lower end, with 30% of homes in escrow.  These are very strong numbers! For a brief discussion regarding the importance of the percentage of homes in “Pending” status, click HERE. San Rafael’s strongest micro-climate markets during the past month included The Dominican, Glenwood, Terra Linda, Marinwood, and Lucas Valley.  

 Feel free to contact Kyle Frazier, CRS, Frank Howard Allen Realtors with any questions: (415) 350-9440.

Novato, Marin County, Real Estate Market Update (November 2007 Home Sales Report)

Novato, Marin County California’s largest city, sits at the northern tip of Marin County. It provides families and/or anyone who lacks the very substantial financial resources required to buy real estate in Southern or Central Marin, a delightful environment to live and raise their families. Novato’s abundant inventory of relatively affordable homes (including newer construction under $800,000) is giving home buyers who are looking to buy right now a very good selection of homes with value.

As for sellers, moreso than in any other town in Marin County, homes MUST BE PRICED FOR TODAY’S MARKET. They must also be nicely maintained, updated, and/or located in a desirable neighborhood if they are to going to sell. Listing agents often say that location, price, condition, and marketing are the four most important pieces of the puzzle (not necessarily in that order) when it comes to selling homes. It is also said that the price can overcome all other issues a home may have. And it is true. Indeed, you can sell a leaky shack next to a nuclear power plant if the price is right. The point is this–sellers in Novato must price their homes correctly if they want their home to actually sell.

In any event, as buyers who have held off on making offers all Summer and Fall can attest, there are some amazing values right now. As a result, showings are on the rise in Novato. There are lots sales with big down payments and short escrows. Yet, it seems some buyers are still waiting to see what happens with prices (although they may learn a hard lesson in mortgage math as interest rates will likely rise in the coming months). Indeed, with the percentage of homes in escrow nearing all-time lows in Novato, this is possibly one of the best markets buyers are going to see for a long time.

Homes in Novato that sold in October 2007 (there were 21 home sales–up by 33% from September 2007) averaged about 106 days on market, for an average sales price of $782,000 (roughly $371 per sq./ft.). Homes in Hamilton Field (particularly Southgate, Inspiration, and Traditions), Pointe Marin (especially those is Breakers), Presidents, Rush Creek, Indian Valley, San Marin, and Partridge Knoll continue to get robust numbers of showings, as do the new luxury homes at Stonetree.