The graph below breaks down the current number of homes for sale in Marin County, California, as of February 26, 2007, along with the price ranges of all active listings by town/city:
Marin Single Family Homes For Sale
|
Town/City
|
Homes for Sale
|
Price Range
|
|
Sausalito
|
24
|
$925,000-$11 million
|
|
Belvedere/Tiburon
|
50
|
$852,000-$13.95 million
|
|
Mill Valley
|
52
|
$725,000-$4.295 million
|
|
Larkspur
|
5
|
$945,000-$1.995 million
|
|
Corte Madera
|
8
|
$650,000-$27 million
|
|
Greenbrae
|
9
|
$995,000-$1.675 million
|
|
Kentfield
|
15
|
$595,000-$18.9 million
|
|
Ross
|
13
|
$649,000-$22 million
|
|
San Anselmo
|
28
|
$739,000-$2.59 million
|
|
San Rafael
|
66
|
$519,000-$4.595 million
|
|
Novato
|
128
|
$580,000-$9.25 million
|
The number of homes for sale is edging upwards as the year progresses?countywide, there are 459 active listings. The high point (in terms of the sheer number of homes for sale in Marin County) will likely be May. While the number of homes for sale has gone up, it is still very low historically (especially in Larkspur, which has only 5 active listings).
There are a couple anomalies in the above graph. For example, while both Ross and Kentfield each have one listing in the $600K range, both of these homes are quite small?and the next lowest priced homes are much higher priced (In Ross, $949,000 and in Kentfield, $1.345 million). One would think these small homes are great bargains, given their locations.
Some other observations: the average listing price of homes in Kentfield is currently over $4 million; the average listing price of homes in Belvedere is well over $6 million; on the other hand, Novato has 37 homes under $800,000, with an average asking price of $692,000 and average time on market over 60 days. The largest spread in price range belongs (again) to Corte Madera, as the Bill Graham Estate on 11 acres remains Marin?s highest priced active listing at $27 million.
If you desire a more specific analysis of your neighborhood, please give me a call at (415) 350-9440.
The San Rafael market (along with the Marin County market, in general) is fairly strong for this time of year (as of the writing of this report), especially in the under $700K range. It is worth noting that these homes tend to be smaller and/or in poor condition, in less desirable neighborhoods, and/or located on a steep hill, etc.
The bread and butter homes of San Rafael are priced between $700K and $900,000?these often sell quickly if they are nicely maintained, updated, and/or located in desirable neighborhoods (like many homes in Marin). Those that are priced correctly may or may not get multiple offers?note: the winning bid (which is not always the highest bid) is likely to be at asking price or just above (unlike the frenzied market of several years ago when overbids were in the stratosphere). Generally speaking, buyers are still in the driver?s seat for most properties. Terra Linda and Marinwood offer some relatively good values for buyers (especially those willing to take on homes that need some work).
Homes priced above $1.25 million in San Rafael are not selling briskly. In this price range buyers are being picky and the percentage of homes in escrow is low. Overall, homes in San Rafael (including homes that are active and pending) have been on the market for an average of 73 days. Homes that have sold in the past month were on the market an average of 78 days. If you would like me to run the exact numbers on your neighborhood, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440.
Novato Overall, the market in Novato seems fairly typical of what we expect this time of year, especially in the bread and butter price ranges (e.g., up to $800,000). Nicely maintained and updated homes located in affordable neighborhoods with good schools (and which are priced correctly) are seeing multiple offers. But, even with multiple offers, many times the winning bid (which is not always the highest bid) is for asking price or just above. Buyers are still in the driver?s seat for most properties.
Homes priced above $800,000 in Novato, are not selling as briskly. In this price range buyers are being very picky and the percentage of homes in escrow is very low. Note that because a bunch of homes went into pending status recently, the $1 million to $1.25 million price range is looking very strong at the time of this analysis. Oddly, on the other hand, not a single home in the $1.5 million and up price range is in pending status. This is, of course, an anomaly. But, it does reflect the anemic sales figures experienced recently in Novato?s upper-end market dating back over a year now.
|
Price Range
|
Units Total
|
Active Listings
|
Pending Listings
|
|
$500K – $599K
|
10
|
60%
|
40%
|
|
$600K – $699K
|
27
|
59%
|
41%
|
|
$700K – $799K
|
32
|
66%
|
34%
|
|
$800K – $999K
|
33
|
85%
|
15%
|
|
$1 mil.-$1.25 mil.
|
26
|
73%
|
27%
|
|
$1.25- $1.5 mil.
|
15
|
87%
|
13%
|
|
$1.5 mil. & up
|
25
|
100%
|
0%
|
Mill Valley The Mill Valley market is somewhat fractured at present with no homes in escrow (as of the writing of this report) in the $900K to $1 million range. This is simply an anomaly, however, as many of these homes are likely to sell in the near future and as we all know, the real estate market is always fluid. It is also worth noting that there are no homes in Mill Valley under $700K and that the homes under $900K tend to be smaller, in poorer condition, in less desirable neighborhoods, and/or located on a steep hill, etc.
The bread and butter homes of Mill Valley are priced between $1 million and $1.25 million?these sell quickly if they are nicely maintained, updated, and/or located in desirable neighborhoods. Those that are priced correctly are again seeing multiple offers. Although many times the winning bid (which is not always the highest bid) is for asking price or just above (unlike the frenzied market of several years ago when overbids were in the stratosphere). Generally speaking, buyers are still in the driver?s seat for most properties.
Homes priced above $2 million in Mill Valley, as is common, are not selling as briskly. In this price range buyers are being picky and the percentage of homes in escrow is very low. Meanwhile, the $1.25 million to $2 million range is looking pretty strong. Someday soon, these reports will refer to that price range as the ?bread & butter? homes of Mill Valley.
|
Price Range
|
Units Total
|
Active Listings
|
Pending Listings
|
|
$700K – $799K
|
9
|
56%
|
44%
|
|
$800K – $899K
|
9
|
89%
|
11%
|
|
$900K – $1 mil.
|
6
|
100%
|
0%
|
|
$1 mil. – $1.2 mil.
|
15
|
47%
|
53%
|
|
$1.2 – $2 mil.
|
21
|
81%
|
19%
|
|
$2 mil. & up
|
19
|
90%
|
10%
|
If you would like detailed data on any specific neighborhood, give me a call at (415) 350-9440. It is my pleasure to be of service.
Each week I select one home that was on brokers? tour in Marin County, California, which I feel really stands out (e.g., winning criteria may include value, unique location, desirable or unusual architectural properties, views, or some other striking feature). These are NOT my listings, but rather ones that I truly and objectively think have something very unique to offer. This week?s pick:
47 Stonetree Lane, Novato
This delightful home is priced at $2,270,000 and has 4 beds and 3.5 baths, with about 3,500 sq. ft. It is my pick of the week because it is the only one-level home in Renaissance. It is absolutely perfect for either a young family or retirees looking for a tasteful turnkey home on one level. Moreover, the lot is largely level and there is a delightful outdoor patio area for relaxing or entertaining. This home is a winner. E-mail me for a property profile with pictures.
Neighborhood
Renaissance at Stonetree, in Novato, (Marin County) is a magnificent development of 54 homes situated on large lots (most are over ? acre), many of which with amazing views of the Bay, Mount Tamalpais, Mount Diablo, and dedicated wetlands. It is a gated community through which a great golf course, Stone Tree Golf Course (North Bay Biz?s best course in 2005), winds through. There is a community pool sitting atop the hill with all day sun, close proximity to a boat launch, and just 15 minutes to Sonoma Square or 10 minutes to the Corte Madera Mall). It is located on the old site of the Renaissance Faire in Black Point, Novato. This home is listed by Sharon Anderson.
Marin County, California sits just north of San Francisco (across the Golden Gate Bridge) and boasts some of the most dramatic and expensive homes in the Bay Area. Homes in Marin (Mill Valley, Sausalito, Tiburon, Belvedere, Ross, Kentfield, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Greenbrae, Corte Madera, Larkspur, and Novato) are not entirely immune to the effects of rising interest rates and the overwhelming barrage of mostly negative media coverage of the “state-of-the-market.” But, prices seem to have stabilized and sales seem to be on the rise as the year wears on, based on anecdotal evidence and early observations. I will report on the exact numbers as they become available.
The following table shows the absorption rate of single family homes in Marin County as of February 1, 2007:
|
Mill Valley
|
2.3
|
|
Sausalito
|
3
|
|
Tiburon
|
4.2
|
|
Larkspur
|
1.2
|
|
Corte Madera
|
2
|
|
Greenbrae/Kentfield
|
1.2
|
|
San Anselmo
|
2.8
|
|
San Rafael
|
1.9
|
|
Novato
|
5.2 |
When the absorption rate is under 3 months, we generally consider the market one that favors the sellers. When the absorption rate is between 3 to 6 months, you have a more balanced market. Once you get above 6 months, however, prices tend to make meaningful strides downward. In Marin County, while we have pockets of communities that have absorption rates higher than 6 months, we are seeing well-priced homes sell with multiple offers even in those communities.
*Note: If your town’s absorption rate is not sampled above, or if you are interested in receiving informatoin on condo sales, please call Kyle at (415) 350-9440.
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, close to $1.5 trillion in adjustable-rate-mortgages are due to have their rates reset this year. Now that it looks like the Fed will not lower interest rates anytime soon, these already-stretched home-owners/borrowers will soon see the 3 & 5 year fixed intermediate ARM loans (they took out during the real estate boom years of 2002-2005) significantly adjust upward in rate. For many, there will be few options available.
Although increased foreclosures and defaults are already being reported in the press, so far most local markets like ours in Marin and Sonoma have been reabsorbing foreclosed homes without too much material effect. However, 2007 will be the first real year that intermediate ARM resets will be taking place and with values down and rates up, many analysts are worried that we as retail loan originators will have no way to help many borrowers, especially in certain speculative markets.
